Thursday, November 6, 2008

What do I do now?

There has been alot of activity over the past couple of weeks to try and fix this market realignment. I've been stuck on where things might move to next. After watching this video on cnbc a few thoughts cleared up.

We have to rebuild the house- The fires have stopped, but now we are looking at a system that is structurally much different than it was a year, even 6 months ago. The challenge here is that the landscape has so drastically changed that it's hard to pick your starting point.

Systemically we are moving to a more realistic alignment of a sustainable lending industry- what we have not seen yet, at least from my perspective- is a more realistic alignment of consumer income statements and balance sheets to reflect the structural changes happening.

Based on this view, where's the opportunity? Depends on your perspective.

If you are a mortgage advisor, financial services advisor, private banking officer, are your clients personally ready for the realignment of credit risk and savings requirements that will be the norm in the new market.

If you are a tech company- are you looking at the financial services industry as a vertical for your product? As companies shed costs, they will need top line revenue growth and sustainable infrastructure costs so as to not end up in the same position a little further down the road.

I'm not sure where this ends up or what it looks like when completed- there are still many variables that need to be worked through - but this seems certain- if the house has burnt down- you will need a blueprint, a foundation and a structure to rebuild. Now's the time for imagination and innovation.

Ideas anyone?

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Social Capital and The Financial Services Industry

The Central Chapter of CAMB had a breakfast meeting today and I spoke there with Dave Savage of Mortgage Coach.

My topic was about Social Capital and the decision making process borrowers go through while shopping for a loan. The presentation was based on a Joint Center For Housing Studies report from Harvard University.

Here's the presentation:




If the currency of social capital is trust and based on some of the research it seems to me that it would be, the topic of conversation came up to day on how to develop social capital and build trust given recent market conditions and client confusion.

Here's a simple way:

Honesty
Transparency
Passion

Watch the presentation - there's a great example that you can see in the embedded video clip.

A great way to build honesty, transparency and passion.

Ask these three questions - just be prepared for honest feedback. (Have these questions take the place of your customer survey)

What three things would you like me to stop doing?

What three things would you like me to keep doing?

What three things would like me to start doing?

By asking these three questions you are setting the foundation of the relationship in an honest light- you are admitting you have room for improvement, you build transparency- part of my business process will be based on your feedback, and you you show your passion - I value your feedback and our relationship show much I am willing to change the way I do business to help you continue to find value in doing business with me.

Check out the presentation and share your feedback. This is a great chance for you and me to invest in our social capital.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Tripod of Trouble Part 2

As we discussed before regarding the tripod of trouble for the credit crisis (govenment, corporations and individual consumers)over the past two weeks one can clearly see that the govenment and corporate parts of the machine are deleveraging and working to rebuild new models. The last piece of the puzzle and the one that has me most concerned is the individual consumer.

Read the article on household income versus housing cost:

http://www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com/study-rising-housing-costs-greatly-outpaced-income/

It is no great mystery that the average American household is spending more thna they take in. As credit markets freeze, income growth stagnates or falls and living expenses continue to rise as the cost of doing business rise with increased borrowing costs and reduced cash flow flexibility, there stands a real chance that in our consumer driven economy a drastic slowdown in spending occurs in order for American households to deleverage and right their household balance sheets the same way the government and corporations have done in the past few weeks.

Any company operating in this environment has a few things to think about-

1) How am I connected to the cash? Where does your customer place your business in the context of their wallet?
At the end of the day- My wife and kids have to eat and have a roof over their heads- is your business tied into those two areas?

2) Is my business model right for this environment? if it comes down to an economy of basic choices how will you survive?

3) How will reduced household cash flow, rising job insecurity, and over leveraged households choose their new products and services?

I'm not saying I have the answers to these questions- but in a world of drastic and lighting fast change- the fundamental assumptions that people use to manage their business and lives needs to change in order to evolve and survive in the next go round.

How are you evolving?

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Upside down economics

Saw this article today and it got me thinking. If one of the fundamental drivers of the credit crisis is declining home prices which is helping cause the deleveraging of the financial system we are seeing today, what then are the implications of the article below:

http://www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com/lenders-lost-more-than-500-per-loan-last-year/

According to the latest Cost Survey from the MBA, lenders lost more than $560 on each loan they originated last year. The main driver in the rising cost: rising production costs.

Net marketing income averaged $1920 per loan, down from $2180 per loan a year earlier.

Some thoughts- today's loan origination models are ripe for reinvention.

I spoke with a friend yesterday who is an AE for a semi still standing bank. The word on the street is that Citi is moving to a completely automated model (a'la ING), reducing the need for AE's in the field.

Technology can help banks here, look for a wave of tech companies coming into the space to help allieviate this growing and troublesome pain among lenders.

Banks typically view the mortgage as one of the best relationship products, but at $500 a loss per ion this environment, the pain cannot be ignored.

Stay tuned.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Amerifund Lending and Reinvention

Just finished up a webinar for Todd Shillington and Amerifund Lending- Reinvent Or Die. Thank You Todd and the good folks who shared their time with us.

Given all the stops and starts we've seen in the industry over the past two weeks, one must understand that no matter what happens the responsibility to change and adapt with the circumstances is ours alone.

Check out the presentation below:



Remember this quote from Charles Darwin:

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Defusing Bombs And The Mortgage Market Today

Great article from portfolio.com on bomb squads and crisis management.

http://www.portfolio.com/careers/features/2008/09/18/Bomb-Squad-Talks-Crisis-Management?TID=email/news/careers

I thought there were some good lessons in there for dealing with the rate of change in today's mortgage market.

Here are some thoughts as you prepare to reinvent you and your business in this time of historic changes.

Be ready for anything- establish 3 scenarios based on what you are seeing - worst case, baseline, best case. Will this prepare you for everything? No, but it in all likelihood a smattering of all three will happen and you will have thought through some of your actions in that case- giving you a better chance of survival.

Secure the perimeter and assess the situation- what is REALLY happening? This part is simple, but not easy. This will take intellectual honesty to examine what is happening and think through the impact on you and your business. You may lose a pillar of your business, your margins for a product line may be destroyed and never come back to the levels you expected. Deal with it and move on.

A second thought on this comes from an article I read once on Pete Carroll and USC recruiting. When he first got to USC he had a map of So Cal drew a red line around it and told his staff that USC must dominate the local recruiting landscape. The lesson here - find the area you can dominate. Pick one thing and dominate that, being scattered in this environment can likely lead to the demise of your company - cash flow is drying up and margins are shrinking.

Learning from your mistakes- 286 companies on the implode-o-meter.

I've worked at #6 and #238 on the list. There's a pattern that happens when companies die in this environment- are you learning about the key variables that affected your demise? Are you acting on that wisdom when you see it again?

Document what went wrong, understand the key drivers behind it and develop two ideas that you could implement next time if you saw the same pattern. Will the pattern always repeat itself in the exact same way? Probably not. Will you better prepared for the subtle changes in the pattern if you have at least two ideas developed and ready to go? Yes and that's two ideas more than your competition.

Remember- the ability to quickly adapt and change is a competitive advantage that can help you and your company evolve to the next level of survival and success.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Historic Events = Historic Opportunity

I'm sure you've read the news on Merrill, Lehman and AIG.

How is it going to shake out? No one knows.

How is it going to look in three years? No one knows.

Where's the opportunity? All over the place.

The events that have transpired over the past few days are creating the most unique opportunity in history for financial service companies to reinvent themselves.

What and how will they reinvent? Here's what I see.

Content creation and distribution -needs to be relevant to my situation and get out to my sphere of influence as quickly as possible.

Infrastructure- technological, lending, underwriting, process, lead generation, lead nurturing

Lower volumes are pressuring business models to change now.

Great article on financial services companies and marketing.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/95567-how-good-are-online-financial-services-at-marketing

Where do companies start? Depends on where they want to be.

But at the foundation, it all starts with trust.

How trusted are you? No Really?

Friday, September 12, 2008

Reinvention of YOU

What exactly is reinvention?

Let's check the definition.

What about the history of the word invent?

Looking at the two you can see that we are to find, discover and devise, but how?

There's an answer in the definition - to revive or bring back.

How do you reinvent yourself in this mortgage market?

5 tips for reinvention: (None of which cost you money)

1) Go back to your roots - what did you love when you first entered the work world as a child?
It is technology, being involved, drawing, sports - what is it?

2) Get rid of your baggage - The market will never be like it once was - accept it, get over it and work to rebuild anew with something bigger. By definition and word hsitory an economy is nomadic - constantly shifting and never staying the same. What may have been your greatest strength may now be your greatest weakness.

3) Become interested, not interesting - ask your friends how things work in their industries, ask your kids how things work at school - by asking new questions we can see new paths - but you must humble yourself to ask those questions first.

4) Evolutionary speed counts - in the game of business - if you can change, reinvent or adapt faster to new circumstances- you have the best oppotunity to win - bottom line. Make your decision to adapt faster than others.

5) Borrow life examples from others- Britney Spears, Madonna, A-Rod these are a few people who have mastered reinvention. How did they do it? How did Britney go from trainwreck to cohosting the VMA's?

Reinvention has a common DNA thread- find what works for you.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Tripod of Trouble

I just came from a great California Association of Mortgage Brokers (CAMB) breakfast meeting, where the speaker was - Robert Manning, Ph.D.. Dr Manning spoke on serveral fronts including the changing American attitude toward debt, but of his comments really hit home.

Let's call it the tripod of trouble.

You have government laws and regulations that need to be fixed in order to help fix the mess we're in.

You have corporations sitting on a ton of bad loans underwritten with bad standards as well credit cards that were being marketed on the assumption of rising home values and free flowing credit.

You have consumers who are overextended and using credit cards to help manage living expenses, stagnant or dropping income levels, and individual debt levels at historic levels.

What does this spell? Trouble!

Now is the time to reinvent or die.

How to reinvent is the question that keeps coming up.

Here's a couple of thoughts-

Housing debt is typically the biggest asset/liability on a individual balance sheet. It typically is the biggest monthly payment.

When does fiduciary duty as a loan originator begin? Pre application, at application?

My perpsective - in the new market (After Freddie and Fannie) fidicuiary duty will take an more holistic overview - can this person REALLY repay the loan?

Is this person's net worth truly enhanced as a result of this decision?

What is the plan that you shared with this client?

How will you monitor this plan?

One way to answer-

GreenSherpa

Another way to answer-

Rudder

Reinvent or Die - now is the time

Monday, September 8, 2008

Let The Rebuilding Begin

The Big News Of The Day

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26590793/site/14081545/

Fannie and Freddie - no more

This action by the federal government provides an opportunity to begin rebuilding the systemic issues within the lending industry that need to be addressed so we can evolve our business to deal with the new martket environment.

While confusion reigns about what will ulitmately happen as a result of this- here's my thought- this means less business across the board. The easy money days are gone and the industry infrastructure that is currently built around the lending community needs to shrink. Simply put - there is not and will not be enough business to go around for the vendors in the marketplace right now.

On the flip side of that destruction is the growth opportunity that will follow as a result of market changes.

Technology infrastructure, lower cost content and delivery channels, new content creation built around the new financial realities of consumers and loan originators are a few of the areas that based on what I'm seeing should have great growth opportunities in the near and long term.

Where's your business model pointing you?

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Pessimism or Realism

I had a couple of interesting conversations this morning about recent event in the mortgage industry.

Two big items - Homecomings and Thornburg mortgage are done.

A large mortgage broker shop will be closing down in So Cal.

As I shared this news with a co worker we discussed all the challenges in the marketplace. He asked if I was focusing too much on the negative and not on the positive - here's a thought.

Focusing on the negative aspects of a market doesn't mean or preclude you from seeing the opportunity being created.

Looking at bad news and being realistic about it (the negative and the opportunity that is being created) seems a more profitable way to deal with it than the either/or model.

The mortgage industry will find a way to rebuild, reinvent and reimagine a better way to do things. How?

The Mortgage Industry 2011 conference is an attempt to find the answer.

Are you interested in building the future?

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

New Times, New Business Models

Three news items caught my attention this morning:

The launch of a new service: http://www.tbwsratealert.com/

The release of a new survey: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/922008_Housing_Recovery_Survey.asp

New Option ARM data:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/09/option-arm-time-bomb-about-to-explode.html

What does all this mean? I'm not sure but I heard it put best the other day - If you're not confused, you're not paying attention.

What are some possible implications of today's data pieces?

With reduced volume and increased trouble ahead, companies and the products and services they sell - must clarify their business and leadership model- Are they product leaders (Apple), customer intimate (Amazon) or operationally excellent (Wal Mart)?

With reduced volume and severe margin compression, the mortgage industry is leaving behind it's bundling of services business model (Made famous by Sandy Weill at Citigroup) and needs to reinvent itself for an individual user of services business model.

Can you deliver your product profitably if you had only one user? Start up costs, product development costs, overhead, etc.

If not, how are you integrating new web services and infrastructure technologies into that process?

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

In Times of Change

Learners Shall Inherit the Earth

'In times of change, learners inherits the earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists.'
--the late writer Eric Hoffer

As we begin to prepare for the Mortgage Industry 2011 conference/brainstorming we must deal with the reality that the mortgage world that we knew no longer exists in reality. There are technological, financial, demographic and business trends that are affecting the way we do business and that will irrevocably change the way our business models operate.

As we move forward in this environment, I thought you'd find the blog below helpful in finding ways to deal with the pace of change.

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/boyden/21925/

What do you see from your perspective and how do you see that changing the way you do business?

How has Amazon changed your clients perspective of the shopping process?

How has Google changed the way your clients expect information to be presented?

Share your thoughts as we paint a vision of understanding for 2011.

Saturday, August 30, 2008

Another mortgage implosion

went on ml-implode.com this morning- now up to 277- latest casualty CSB Mortgage

http://ml-implode.com/imploded/lender_CSBMortgage_2008-08-29.html

interesting note - they can no longer maintain a profit at current volumes.

Which reminded me of a story I read in The Big Moo - When Everything Is Free

With continued pressure on margins and downward pressure on volumes (in lending, in ancillary services and at point of sale) how hard have you thought about living in a free world?

How will you prepare?



How will you change your relationship with your customers?

Will you change at all?

How will you attract and keep customers who will chip in extra money if you can't your yearly revenue goals?

How will you change your product to become so valuable that customers will pay a fair price after they've used it freely for a year?

What will you do differently to survive?

Friday, August 29, 2008

Mortgage Industry 2011

Mortgage Industry 2011

What does it look like?

How will the all the players in this very challenged marketplace come together to reinvent the industry infrastructure in a way that creates sustainable lending practices and increased accountability in an era of reduced margins and a demand for process and communication transparency?

I am currently working on a putting together an industry "un"conference to help imagine, invent and innovate the mortgage industry by bringing most of the key players in the industry together (lenders, LOS, content, delivery channels, compliance, ancillary services - primary and secondary) and creating a more holistic solution than the siloed approach we've had in the past.

Any thoughts on what 2011 looks like?